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SEPTEMBER 3,  2021

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

THIS, IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA – FROM FOX, OVERNIGHT:   Conservative author and commentator Candace Owens was denied medical care in the form of a coronavirus test by a Colorado laboratory because of her political beliefs, Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson reported Thursday.  Owens was sent a letter by Aspen Laboratories co-founder Suzanna Lee informing her that her "booking" was being cancelled and that she would be "denied service" because of both her aversion to governmental facemask mandates and her analysis of the effectiveness of vaccination shots.  "We cannot support anyone who has pro-actively worked to make this pandemic worse by spreading misinformation, politicizing, and discouraging the wearing of masks and actively dissuading people from receiving life-saving vaccinations," Lee wrote in the letter obtained by "Tucker Carlson Tonight."  Carlson noted it has not been unusual for Americans of certain political affiliations to be "singled out, punished and denied services" – but that it is likely one of the first such cases of an American citizen being denied medical treatment on that basis.  "This doesn't sound like America," he said, introducing Owens to the program.  No it doesn't, and I think the Republican Party can turn this case, and others like it, into a major, symbolic issue.   

September 3,   2021        Permalink

THE DEM NIGHTMARE – THE HISPANIC VOTE – OVERNIGHT:  We've discussed it before and we no signs of it letting up.  The Hispanic community is drifting leftward.  If it goes much further, it can destroy Dem hopes of running, and ruining, the country indefinitely.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Yesterday I wrote about the realization among some Democrats that the party's once-hoped-for glorious future based on the support of millions of Hispanic voters might not actually happen.

Democratic political scientist Ruy Teixeira, author of the influential book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, which predicted just such a future, is now warning Democrats that the party is losing support among Hispanic Americans.

To that, add some striking information from the Republican pollster David Winston.  A longtime adviser to some House GOP leaders, Winston notes that in 2020, congressional Republicans won 36% of the Hispanic vote — up from 32% in 2016. That was better than President Donald Trump's performance with Hispanic voters, which was 32% in 2020 and 28% in 2016. And Trump's performance was better than Mitt Romney's in the 2012 election, a defeat that prompted much Republican debate over how the party could increase its appeal to Hispanic voters.

So the GOP's improvement among Hispanic voters, and the Democratic Party's decline among that same group, extends beyond the candidacies of Trump himself. And the 36% for congressional Republicans indicates that a lot of Hispanic voters who think of themselves as independent chose to support the GOP. In the 2020 exit polls, Winston notes, just 20% of Hispanic voters identified themselves as Republicans, while 32% identified themselves as independents, and 48% identified as Democrats. Obviously, Democrats still have an advantage, but a majority, 52%, think of themselves as independents or Republicans.

Perhaps most important is ideology. Hispanics are clearly not as far to the left as today's Democratic Party. The numbers, again from Winston: 32% of Hispanics identify themselves as conservatives, opposed to just 10% of Democrats overall. On the other end of the spectrum, 46% of Democrats identify themselves as liberals, opposed to just 25% of Hispanics.

In the middle, 43% of both Hispanic voters and Democrats as a whole call themselves moderate. But the numbers clearly suggest that Hispanics tilt a bit right, while Democrats tilt much more to the left.

So Teixeira's warning from yesterday's newsletter — "Hispanic voting trends have not been favorable for Democrats" — stands up. This political moment holds great opportunities for Republicans to cement their progress among Hispanic voters — not by pandering, but by offering all voters the same conservative message. We'll see if the GOP can do it.

COMMENT:  I suspect that Asian Americans may well be the next group to defect.  They are natural Republicans – accomplished, entrepreneurial, academic, and independent.  They've been treated badly by the Democratic Party, some of whose base clearly resent Asian-American success.

September 3, 2021       Permalink

SEPTEMBER 2,  2021

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT: 

NEWSOM CHARGES FORWARD, UNFORTUNATELY – FROM THE L.A. TIMES:   Most likely California voters are opposed to the Republican-led recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom and a growing number fear the consequences of removing him from office with a hard-right conservative best positioned to take his place, according to new poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.  The poll found that 58% of likely voters surveyed in California oppose removing Newsom from office compared to 39% who support recalling the governor, a gap rooted in the sharp partisan divide between Democratic and Republican voters in the state.  The findings, which were gathered by pollsters over a nine-day period ending on Sunday, may offer some hope for Newsom, who has for the past month expressed concern that an “enthusiasm gap” among Democratic and nonaffiliated voters could lead to his political demise — particularly with high engagement in the recall effort among Republicans.  In response, Newsom has blanketed California with ads attacking the top GOP candidates, casting them as devotees of former President Trump who oppose state mandates for COVID-19 vaccinations and mask wearing, a clear strategy to rally California’s left-leaning electorate.  Let's not forget that California is a heavily Democratic state, so much so that the Republicans often neglect to put up a fight.  That's been the case this year.  The GOP needed a star candidate to present as the alternative to Newsom.  What they have is Larry Elder, a perfectly fine conservative talk-show host, an African-American, but not a man with a commanding political presence.  He's being smeared by the left as "the black face of white supremacy," an ugly a label as I've seen in politics, but it may be working among minorities.  Newsom, a terrible governor, has brought his campaign alive.  I fear he's going to pull it out, and ruin the state further.

September 2,  2021     Permalink

THE CONTINUING CRUMBLING – OVERNIGHT:  As more and more political information comes in, we can say, with our usual caution about polls, that the president of the United States is in serious trouble, and the anguish isn't coming only from the usual conservative sources.    From bizpacreview.com: 

It’s mourning, rather than morning, in America, if a new poll from the Morning Consult organization is accurate that the country is perceived as headed in the wrong direction.

In a lengthy national tracking survey co-sponsored with the generally liberal Politico website, almost two-thirds of Americans indicated that things in the U.S. have “pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track.” The same number, 61 percent, disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan crisis.

And 49 percent disapprove of Biden’s overall job performance, while 47 percent approve, which The Hill noted is a “record low.”

Among various other findings, the same percentage (49 percent) disapprove of Biden’s stewardship of the economy as well as his “gun policy,” and 65 percent disapprove of his handling of immigration per se (although the survey question does not specifically allude to the staggering numbers of illegal aliens allowed to pour across the U.S.-Mexico border.)

In general, critics have often questioned pollsters’ methodology, with good reason, in the context of oversampling Democrats for ideological and other reasons.

This particular survey demographic was somewhat more leaning Democrat than Republican (45 percent to 42 percent), with the rest apparently in some other category, but the findings as constituted, and if accurate, don’t necessarily spare the Biden administration from a dismal outlook.

With an acknowledged margin of error of two percent, either way, the data was derived from checking the political temperature of about 2,000 registered voters.

Registered voters, as opposed to, e.g., likely voters, have traditionally been considered a less-valid metric of public opinion, however.

According to Morning Consult, 50 percent either strongly or somewhat supported Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but 72 percent indicated that it’s not going too well, or not well at all.

COMMENT:  An important note.  We're getting a great deal of good news about prospects for our side in next year's election.  This story is part of that news.  The news might not continue.  By the time of the 2022 midterms, the Afghanistan debacle will be more than a year old.  Who knows what will replace it?  An economic collapse?  An economic boom?   A President Harris? 

The misfortune of an opponent doesn't necessarily mean good fortune for us.  In races around the country our current position is so-so.  Gavin Newsom looks likely to beat his recall challenge in California, denying Republicans a shot at turning the golden state red.  In Virginia, if current trends continue, Democrats will hang onto the governor's mansion in November.  Governor Ron DeSantis has suffered a sizable plunge in approval in Florida.  And Even Texas is uncertain.

We will have to fight for every vote.  Despite growing discontent with liberal policies, we are facing a vast financial machine, backed by overwhelming support in the mainstream media.  Take nothing for granted.  The Democrats will run fear campaigns, which often work.

September 2, 2021       Permalink